GLOBIO-AQUATIC. Effects of nutrient emissions on freshwater biodiversity and algal blooms for the years 1970, 2010 and 2050.

The dataset comprises the simulated loss of freshwater biodiversity intactness (expressed as MSA; scale 0-1) in lakes and rivers worldwide, as well as the simulated concentration of cyanobacteria (harmful algal blooms) in lakes (in range classes related to the WHO standards; Chorus & Welker, 2021), due to nutrient emissions to surface water.
The effects have been modelled by the model GLOBIO-Aquatic (Janse et al., 2015; Janse et al., 2023). The data are global at a 30x30 arc minutes resolution, and cover the years 1970, 2010, and 2050 for six INMS scenarios, representing different combinations of SSPs, RCPs and nitrogen policy options.

Format

Comma-separated values (CSV)

Where/When

Study area
Temporal extent: 1970-01-01 to 2050-12-31

Provenance & quality

The nutrient emissions and concentrations in surface water have been modelled by the Global Nutrient Model (GNM; Beusen et al., 2022) combined with the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (Sutanudjaja et al., 2018). The missions are the sum of leaching from (agricultural) land, urban emissions, aquaculture and atmospheric deposition.
Land-use and climate projections were based on the IMAGE model (Stehfest et al., 2014).

Supplemental information

GLOBIO | Global biodiversity model for policy support

Beusen AHW, Doelman JC, Van Beek LPH, et al (2022) Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways. Glob Environ Change 72:102426.

Chorus, I, Welker M; eds. (2021). Toxic Cyanobacteria in Water, 2nd edition. CRC Press, Boca Raton (FL), on behalf of the World Health Organization, Geneva, CH.

Janse, J.H., Kuiper, J.J., Weijters, M.J., Westerbeek, E.P., Jeuken, M.H.J.L., Bakkenes, M.Alkemade, R., Verhoeven, J.T.A., 2015. GLOBIO-aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems. Env. Sci. Pol. 48: 99-114.

Janse, J.H., Bakkenes, M. and Meijer, J.R. (2016). GLOBIO-AQUATIC, Technical Model Description, Model version 1.3 (Aug. 2014). PBL, Den Haag, publ. nr. 2829.

Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D., Kram, T., Bouwman, L., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Biemans, H., Bouwman, A., den Elzen, M., Janse, J., Lucas, P., van Minnen, J., Muller, M., Prins, A., 2014. Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Janse JH, Bakkenes M, Barbarossa V, Gernaat DEHJ, Giesen P (2023). Future pathways to restore ecological quality of freshwater ecosystems within SSP2/RCP6.0 boundary conditions. Background report Future Water Challenges. PBL, Den Haag.

Authors

Jan H. Janse

PBL – Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6162-9943

Michel Bakkenes