Modelled river export of nutrients from sub-basins globally for scenarios SSP1 and SSP5 and for the years 2010 and 2050
(MARINA-Global model for nutrients in water)

River export of nitrogen and phosphorus is provided for 2010 and 2050. This data is computed by the MARINA-Global model: Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutants to seas. Nitrogen and phosphorus are in dissolved inorganic and organic forms.
The future follows Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 1 (sustainability-oriented) and 5 (economic-oriented). SSP1 is combined with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6. SSP5 is combined with RCP8.5 to create the scenarios:

1) Business as usual (SSP5-RCP8.5 Low N ambition)
2) Bioenergy (SSP1-RCP2.6 High N ambition with low meat & dairy diet)

River export of the nutrients is calculated from around ten thousands sub-basins as a function of human activities on the land (e.g., agriculture, sewage) and sub-basin characteristics (e.g., hydrology, terrestrial and aquatic retentions).

The modelling approaches of MARINA-Global are published and evaluated in earlier studies, please see the documentation below.

Formats

Comma-separated values (CSV)
Shapefile

Where/When

Study area
Temporal extent: 2010-01-01 to 2050-01-01

Provenance & quality

Sources of the data are indicated in Chapter 11 of the INI book.

Additional sources
- for point-source inputs of nutrients to rivers: Strokal, Maryna; Bai, Zhaohai; Franssen, Wietse; Hofstra, Nynke; Koelmans, Albert A.; Ludwig, Fulco; et al. Metadata supporting the article: Urbanization: an increasing source of multiple pollutants to rivers in the 21st century. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13333796 (2020)

- Hydrological data: https://vic.readthedocs.io/en/master/Overview/ModelOverview/ and ISIMIP2b https://www.isimip.org/

Citations

Strokal, M., Bai, Z., Franssen, W. et al. (2021) Urbanization: an increasing source of multiple pollutants to rivers in the 21st century. npj Urban Sustain 1, 24. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-021-00026-w

Wang, M., Kroeze, C., Strokal, M., van Vliet, M. T. H., & Ma, L. (2020). Global change can make coastal eutrophication control in China more difficult. Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001280. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001280